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Bitcoin Past Present Future

Bitcoin experienced an impressive rally in 2023, surging by 152%. Experts interviewed, both from within and outside the cryptocurrency sector, predict that the upward trajectory is likely to continue. This optimistic outlook comes after a challenging 2022 for Bitcoin, which saw collapses and bankruptcy filings.

The industry now sees the resolution of these high-profile changes as an opportunity to progress and move past the negative events. The anticipation of further growth is largely based on two catalysts: the upcoming Bitcoin “halving” in 2024, an event that reduces miner rewards by half, thereby constraining supply, and the recent approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S., which could attract a broader and more institutional investor base.

Several industry figures have made bold price predictions for Bitcoin. Mark Mobius suggested it could reach $60,000 by the end of 2024, driven by the hype around a likely Bitcoin ETF. Youwei Yang of Bit Mining projected a range of $25,000 to $75,000 for Bitcoin in 2024, highlighting the halving event and ETF approval as key factors. However, Yang also advised caution, given past market upheavals and political factors during election years.

James Butterfill from CoinShares predicted an $80,000 Bitcoin price, pointing to the ETFs’ potential integration with traditional financial markets and the influence of central bank interest rate decisions. Antoni Trenchev of Nexo, a long-standing Bitcoin bull, reinstated his prediction of $100,000 for Bitcoin, citing the halving and ETFs as twin drivers. Standard Chartered and Carol Alexander from the University of Sussex shared the $100,000 sentiment, with Alexander highlighting the need for ETF providers to manage volatility effectively.

The consensus among these industry players is that, despite the potential for high returns, investors should remain vigilant due to market volatility and other influencing factors such as regulatory actions and interest rate changes. The next few years appear to be pivotal for Bitcoin’s price trajectory, with broader adoption and investment inflows anticipated following key developments such as the halving and the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs.

So, what is Bitcoin halving, and what’s going on?

Bitcoin Halving: As 2024 is now upon us, Bitcoin’s potential for a significant price increase is stirring market optimism, with forecasts suggesting a ‘supercycle’ could be on the horizon. A number of factors contribute to this optimistic outlook:

The Bitcoin Halving itself is scheduled for April 2024, the halving event is expected to reduce the supply of new Bitcoin because it halves the reward for mining new blocks. Such events historically lead to price increases due to the resulting supply crunch, as seen after the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings.

“Reflecting on the upcoming halving and the increasing institutional interest, it’s clear we’re on the cusp of a transformative period for Bitcoin,” says Kimberley, the Investment Director at FalconCo. “These factors are aligning to potentially redefine not just Bitcoin’s value, but the broader financial landscape in ways we’re just beginning to understand.”

Institutional Interest: The potential for a spot bitcoin ETF in the US, as indicated by BlackRock’s application in 2023, and the launch of the Hong Kong spot bitcoin ETF, which offers more capital investment options, may attract substantial institutional investment, boosting Bitcoin’s price.

New Financial Accounting Standards: New rules simplify the accounting for digital asset funds, which could make them more attractive to corporate treasuries.

Failing Fiat Currencies: Economic concerns, particularly in the US with credit rating downgrades and the threat of hyperinflation, may position Bitcoin as a safe haven asset. The global trend towards de-dollarization adds to this sentiment.

Analyst Price Predictions: Forecasting a bullish future, analysts have posited significant price leaps post-2024 halving, with PlanB suggesting a potential high of $524,000, Blockware Solutions hinting at $400,000, and VanEck predicting new peaks by Q4 2024 due to factors including the US election, the halving-induced supply shock, and favorable regulatory changes.

In summary, a confluence of supply dynamics, growing institutional interest, favourable financial accounting standards, economic uncertainties, and bullish analyst predictions are creating what many believe could be a perfect storm for a Bitcoin super cycle, leading to potentially unprecedented price highs in 2024.

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